Fertility and Childbearing Plans in Ukraine: War and Post-Wartime Expectations

Abstract

The paper investigates fertility and childbearing plans in Ukraine, contributing to knowledge on reproductive behaviour during wartime. Ukraine experienced a fertility increase from 2002 to 2012, followed by a steady decline after 2014 that accelerated dramatically with the 2022 Russian full-scale invasion. The ongoing war and resulting data fragmentation present significant challenges for the fertility study. The data from the wartime survey show a widespread postponement of parenthood, often indefinitely or at least until the war's end. We analyse survey data using logit and multinomial regression models to understand the socio-demographic determinants of childbearing intentions in this volatile context. Our regression analyses identified age, sex, current parental status, employment, and education as key predictors. Specifically, the models reveal that being younger, male, employed, and having a tertiary education are associated with a higher likelihood of intention to have a child. A crucial finding from the multinomial logit model is the substantial decline in the likelihood of planning children (both in the near and distant future) among those who already have children relative to childless respondents. Considering these results alongside Ukraine's pre-existing low fertility, a significant compensatory boom after the war appears unlikely. The findings underscore the war's profound and potentially lasting impact on Ukraine's demographic future.